Superforecasters Put AI Solving a Millennium Problem at 1.7% — and Keep Underestimating AI
emollick · x · 2026-09-24
Ethan Mollick notes that when asked in September 2025, top superforecasters gave only a 1.7% chance of AI resolving a Millennium Prize Problem by September 2026; optimistic industry experts said 4.6%.
The same forecasters also badly underestimated AI lab revenue, suggesting systematic underprediction of both AI capability and commercial progress.
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