ICLR 2027 submission spike mostly double-counting: net new papers only ~22K after NeurIPS overlap
rao2z · x · 2026-09-24
Reacting to the ICLR 2027 submissions angst, the author runs the numbers: NeurIPS 2026 drew 40K submissions, and given the timing, most of those were likely already submitted as ICLR abstracts. That means the genuinely new submissions written after May are only 22K.
The projection: if NeurIPS 2026 accepts roughly a quarter (10K papers), those will drop out of the ICLR abstract pool tomorrow, leaving 50K — only about 10K more than NeurIPS 2026. Conclusion: the headline surge is largely double-counting of the same papers, not an actual explosion in new research.
Related event: ICLR 2027 Submission Surge? Net Increase Only About 10K After Overlap(2 posts)→
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