12 months is the lower bound: data ecosystem keeps AI fast-followers close
herbiebradley · x · 2026-09-24
Continuing the thread, herbiebradley argues that given the data ecosystem, distillation, and the leakiness of what works at the frontier, it seems actively hard to be 12 months behind — he views 12 months as the lower bound for the gap. He also claims 4.7 and Muse Spark 1.3 are solidly better than Opus 4.1/GPT-5, especially in coding.
Related event: Debate: Buyable Data Makes a 12-Month AI Lag Hard to Sustain(3 posts)→
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