Toby Ord on RL's bits problem: 'I haven't changed my mind much' — his jagged-capabilities predictions held up
tobyordoxford · x · 2026-09-24
Asked whether he updated on the "RL doesn't have enough bits" theory, Toby Ord says he hasn't changed his mind much: rereading his essay, it holds up, with good predictions including RL-era AI getting much better at a subset of RLed tasks — what we now call jagged capabilities.
More from AGI Musings
- Rishi Bommasani co-founds nonprofit STABL with SayashK and Arvind Narayanan — RishiBommasani · 2026-11-12
- Investor: AI diffusion will be slowest in consumer software — Oura, Strava, Labcorp still have no real AI strategy — MartinGTobias · 2026-11-12
- On AI Progress: When Models Lag on Your Load-Bearing Skill, You Can't See Them Improving — dfrsrchtwts · 2026-11-12
- Slack's David Hoang: agents beat people on coordination, proposes 'boundary agents' — davidhoang · 2026-11-12
- CS student mourns coding flow states he'll never experience in the AI era — chrissyykat · 2026-11-12
- Ford's 370% Turnover Led to $5 Days — But ASI Never Quits — krishnan · 2026-11-12