Toby Ord on RL's bits problem: 'I haven't changed my mind much' — his jagged-capabilities predictions held up

tobyordoxford · x · 2026-09-24

Asked whether he updated on the "RL doesn't have enough bits" theory, Toby Ord says he hasn't changed his mind much: rereading his essay, it holds up, with good predictions including RL-era AI getting much better at a subset of RLed tasks — what we now call jagged capabilities.

Related event: Toby Ord Stands by RL Information-Bottleneck Thesis in Exchange with Millidge(5 posts)→

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