Toby Ord: AI ability levels fall 100-1000x in cost, not a clean 100,000x
tobyordoxford · x · 2026-09-24
Oxford philosopher Toby Ord, discussing with David Manheim and Epoch AI, argues a better description of AI cost trends: each ability level rapidly falls in cost, then flattens out even in percentage-per-month terms, ultimately dropping roughly 100x to 1000x, while the quality tiers on offer keep rising. He is skeptical of summarizing this as prices falling 100,000x, saying that would be abstract and he hasn't seen a workable way to frame it.
Related event: Scholars Challenge Viral Chart Claiming 100,000x Drop in AI Prices(10 posts)→
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