Jonathon Stray on p(doom): No Basis for Quantifying AI Catastrophe, But No Knock-Down Argument Either
dhadfieldmenell · x · 2026-09-24
Jonathon Stray argues there's little basis for quantitative p(doom) estimates of AI existential risk — unlike the 1942 atmosphere-ignition worry, where calculation ruled it out, no one has shown AI disaster scenarios to be impossible, and real safety incidents are already worrying. AI safety scholar Dhadfield Menell endorsed the take.
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