Polymarket puts odds of a US AI safety bill before 2027 at just 14%

Polymarket · x · 2026-09-23

On Polymarket, the contract for the U.S. enacting an AI safety bill before 2027 is priced at just 14% (volume $164,771).

Resolution requires a signed bill containing at least one of: bans on creating/releasing specific AI systems, training restrictions (data access or parameter caps), usage restrictions, or human-in-the-loop requirements.
Traders price it low mainly because Congress has advanced multiple proposals without bipartisan consensus or floor time.
Context: new polling finds nearly 8 in 10 Americans concerned about AI 'escaping human control,' a gap with legislative progress.

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