AI app supply quadrupled, demand flat: a16z data dumps cold water on vibe coding
创业邦 · wechat · 2026-09-23
a16z's latest data note pours cold water on the vibe-coding startup wave. MIT/Penn research shows that since the "agentic coding era" began in early 2025, monthly new iOS apps jumped from 40k to 120k, with Android and Chrome extensions doubling to quadrupling — yet first-quarter engagement for new apps stayed flat or fell, zero/low-usage apps rose sharply, and no new winners emerged. The researchers call it App-Slop. Sensor Tower confirms: US app revenue grew only 2% and usage 7% over 18 months.
The only winner is AI itself: productivity is the sole category with both revenue (+100%) and time spent (+55%) booming, driven by ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini and Grok; games declined. Consumer AI payment remains niche: 3% of US consumers pay for AI services (5.9% among 18–24, 1.4% for 65+). The takeaway: vibe coding lowers the cost of validating an idea, not of building a business — more apps don't create more demand.
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