Apple needed 7 years for market belief; today's market prices zero durability into the AI cycle

BenBajarin · x · 2026-11-11

Ben Bajarin revisits 2010-2020 valuation models to argue the market is "simply short any belief in any durability of this AI cycle":

• Apple took 7 years for the market to accept its durability; it traded at 11x P/E at end-2015 while Amazon's cloud-monopoly narrative commanded a premium (37x EV/EBITDA)
• The multiples have fully swapped: Apple now 38x P/E and 29x EV/EBITDA; Amazon 21x P/E and 16x EV/EBITDA
• Cash flows flipped too: Apple's FCF grew from $70B to $136B with buybacks, while Amazon's FCF turned negative $47B as capex for AI capacity exceeds operating cash flow

Bottom line: the market once paid up for reinvestors and discounted cash-returners — today it does the reverse.

Original post →

More from Venture

• AEO insight: feeding your third-party evidence pipeline beats content production for ARR — sanderssays · 2026-11-12
• YC founder builds Tech Grails, a company for people who follow tech companies like celebrities — paw_lean · 2026-11-12
• Amazon Is Flooded with Vibe Coding Books — and 90% Are Probably Ghostwritten — billyjhowell · 2026-11-12
• Building an End-to-End Hedge Fund in Python with Claude Code: A 5-Step Workflow — mdancho84 · 2026-11-12
• Goodwin raises $720M Series C to build the fastest chips for AI inference scaling — igarciacamargo · 2026-11-12
• Cohere-Aleph Alpha merger not closed yet: C$35.7B valuation, Schwarz-led round — YvesMulkers · 2026-11-11

Venture channel →