Model release cadence shrinks from 73 to 18 days; RSI odds pulled toward 2027
soumitrashukla9 · x · 2026-09-23
- Cited data shows the gap between major model releases shrinking from an average of 73 days in 2023 to just 18 days so far in 2026.
- Reacting to this, @sudoraohacker says he is updating his priors on RSI (recursive self-improvement): a software version in 2027 is now possible, with odds rising sharply for 2028–2029 — though chip design, manufacturing and energy access must keep pace.
- He notes Jack Clark's 2028 prediction may not be far off and that the pace is clearly accelerating.
More from AGI Musings
- Security vets push back on the 'runaway agent eval' threat: outspent attackers always got in — dyn___ · 2026-09-23
- Bostrom's question: would you raise kids if superintelligence would do it better? — abhiadesai · 2026-09-23
- AIDE^2 shows AI research agents can recursively improve themselves over 8 days — WecoAI · 2026-09-23
- 'Great Stagnation' thread: 4 years of AI growth promises, no GDP payoff — sebpaquet · 2026-09-23
- Every commerce and services app will face an existential call to open APIs for consumer agents, says VC — alexmacgregor__ · 2026-09-23
- Ex-OpenAI VP Miles Brundage: AI pauses create capability overhangs and raise rogue-AI risk — Miles_Brundage · 2026-09-23