We lived AI's exponential year, yet still forecast the next with linear thinking
facontidavide · x · 2026-09-23
- facontidavide observes a widespread contradiction: many people, like himself, personally experienced exponential AI growth over the past year, yet still apply a linear mental model when predicting next year's progress.
- The point highlights the most common bias in AI forecasting: vivid recent experience paired with systematic underestimation when extrapolating trends.
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