CNAS paper 'The AGI Moment' maps AI strategies from pause to racing ahead
paul_scharre · x · 2026-09-22
Paul Scharre of the Center for a New American Security released a new paper, "The AGI Moment: Strategies and Recommendations for an Uncertain Future."
Core question: With leading AI lab heads arguing for slowing development to ensure safety, should the US pause or race toward AGI?
Framework:
- Key variables: AGI timeline, takeoff speed, alignment, the role of compute, whether AGI is a discrete threshold, and first-mover advantage
- Measurable variables include compute, algorithmic progress, capabilities, and alignment; governments and companies hold levers like research pace, safety investment, regulation, and compute distribution
Recommendation: Given radical uncertainty, policymakers should increase visibility into how AI unfolds today and build in optionality to govern powerful AI if needed. The paper analyzes strategies ranging from a pause to racing to AGI.
Related event: CNAS report urges US strategy at the AGI moment(2 posts)→
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