NBER RCT: juniors' AI productivity gains vanish entirely once the tool is removed
ziv_ravid · x · 2026-09-22
Citing a new NBER RCT (Autor et al., 133 patent lawyers), the author notes juniors' output jumped with AI assistance — but when the tool was taken away, the gains vanished with zero durable improvement. Seniors in the same experiment kept their gains.
The author's takeaway: foundational expertise may be a prerequisite for extracting durable skill from AI-assisted practice. Combined with the Stanford employment data from earlier posts (juniors in AI-exposed roles down 13%, young devs down 20% from peak), this forms a two-front squeeze on entry-level workers.
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