Nobody Has a Clue: AI Forecasts Range From <1% to 99% Doom With Zero Consensus
LiveComfortable3228 · reddit · 2026-09-22
The author surveys the chaotic past few weeks: HF security incidents, researchers quitting OpenAI/Anthropic with doom warnings, Altman/Amodei/Musk calling to slow down, Bernie's pause bill, accelerationists pushing forward, and a podcast circuit of Zitron, Bostrom and Yampolskiy.
Conclusion: nobody actually knows. Zero-consensus topics include PDoom estimates spanning <1% to 99%; doomers lacking a coherent chain from 'solved a math problem' to 'humanity destroyed'; takeoff timelines from late-2026 fast takeoff to decades; job loss vs. augmentation; LLM consciousness; and whether the math breakthrough means AGI or training-data leakage. The author concludes AI remains a black box and the current pace is unjustifiable.
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