Polymarket Puts Just 11% Odds on US-China Deal to Pace the AI Frontier
Polymarket · x · 2026-09-22
Polymarket has opened a market on whether the U.S. and China will agree to mutually slow down frontier AI development — currently trading at just 11%. The context: Trump declared AI will be "bigger than the Industrial Revolution" or the internet, while vowing to keep the U.S. ahead of China, making a joint slowdown seem unlikely to bettors.
More from AGI Musings
- AI safety organizations have long worked on cybersecurity and misuse, push back on critics — panickssery · 2026-09-22
- Rogue AI is a scapegoat narrative: the HF incident was human error — whurley · 2026-09-22
- Ex-Slack engineer launches 'After Coding' podcast on life when LLMs do the coding — josh_wills · 2026-09-22
- Tech is just $200k engineers automating each other's jobs while claiming to build AGI — tech__unicorn · 2026-09-22
- Venkatesh Rao essay: EAs are great at numerical uncertainty, bad at deeper doubt — binarybits · 2026-09-22
- FutureHouse expands Biology Millennium Problems with cash prizes — anshulkundaje · 2026-09-22