Economists debate how to study AI's economic impact before clean identification arrives
robseamans · x · 2026-09-21
Alex Olegimas argues that while economists are trained to prize clean causal identification—instruments, parallel trends—such studies take years or decades, and AI's economic impact demands usable signals right now. Peter McCrory adds practical implications: prioritize analyses updatable with new data, work in the open, acknowledge uncertainty with falsifiable predictions, and stay earnest. Rob Seamans shared in agreement.
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