Gary Marcus mocks GPT-6's 10% P(Doom): 'even it knows this number is subjective'
GaryMarcus · x · 2026-09-21
- Liron cited a claim that "GPT-6 Astra" assigns a 10% P(Doom), i.e. a 10% chance of AI catastrophe.
- Gary Marcus quote-replied to mock the exercise: even GPT-6 Astra itself "knows" such a number is subjective and not scientific.
The exchange is a jab at popular doomer probability estimates, arguing these P(Doom) figures are opinion dressed up as analysis rather than anything measurable.
Related event: Critics Slam AI Doom Probability Figures as Unscientific(4 posts)→
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