Researcher bets 20k ICLR 2027 papers will be ≥90% AI-generated, showing his math
fredahshi · x · 2026-09-21
John Wieting sets the over/under at 20,000 ICLR 2027 papers that are ≥90% AI-generated:
- 60k abstracts registered this year; last year's 76% registration-to-paper conversion implies 46k submissions, +26k year-over-year even with submission caps.
- He ran 15 papers from his AAAI SPC batch through Pangram: 11/15 abstracts came back 100% AI; on main text, 7 were ≥90% AI and 10 were at least two-thirds AI.
- Extrapolating: 60k × 76% × 7/15 ≈ 21k.
That would be 44% of the conference, exceeding total valid ICLR 2026 submissions. Losers of his bet must review the winner's batch.
Related event: ICLR 2027 Submissions Top 62K, Exceeding All Previous Years Combined(35 posts)→
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