Economists call for an epistemology shift: AI's economy needs evidence now, not perfect identification in a decade
danielrock · x · 2026-09-21
Economists are debating how to study AI's economic impact. Alex Olegimas argues that while clean-identification causal papers remain vital, they take a decade or more—and AI is moving too fast to wait.
- Anna Salomons (endorsed by Daniel Rock) calls for an "epistemology shift": assembling collages of descriptive empirical evidence, interpreted through theory, to understand what's happening and what comes next.
- The debate matters for anyone tracking AI's labor and productivity effects: rigorous causal work will come eventually, but imperfect signals are needed right now.
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