Economists Ben Moll and Alex Imas: don't expect double-digit GDP growth from AI within 10-15 years
binarybits · x · 2026-09-19
Economists Ben Moll and Alex Imas push back on AI-insider forecasts of 10-30%+ GDP growth (Dario Amodei, Aschenbrenner, Sholto Douglas). Extremely bullish on AI capabilities themselves, they argue economic forces make double-digit growth extremely unlikely in the next 10-15 years: a baseline of 4-5% is far more realistic — already massive — and even Anthropic's own model only reaches double digits in its extreme scenario. AI will affect growth with 'long and variable lags'; the demand-side constraint is especially important.
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