Karpathy: model generations last 3-4 months, so predicting 2 years out is hopeless
deedydas · x · 2026-09-18
Karpathy explains how he thinks about AI's future: in model generations, each lasting 3-4 months. Three generations ago he was still writing code by hand. Asked what happens in two years, he notes that's eight generations of progress — "I have no idea." The framing underscores how iteration speed has outpaced any ability to forecast capabilities.
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