Polymarket prices 35% chance frontier AI labs announce a joint pacing deal in 2026
Polymarket · x · 2026-09-18
Prediction market Polymarket opened a new contract asking whether frontier AI labs will announce a joint pacing agreement in 2026, currently priced at 35%.
Resolution requires at least two of OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, xAI and Meta to announce a "pacing agreement" by Dec 31, 2026 — meaning commitments such as conditioning training/release/deployment on safety requirements, capping training compute, limiting recursive self-improvement, or pausing/slowing model releases. Statements of support or ongoing negotiations don't qualify; confirmation must come through official channels.
Related event: Polymarket Prices 35% Odds of AI Labs Slowing Race Deal by 2026(2 posts)→
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