Polymarket Puts US AI Safety Bill Odds at Just 14% Before End of 2026
Polymarket · x · 2026-09-17
Prediction market Polymarket has opened a market on whether the US enacts an AI safety bill before 2027, currently trading at 14% with $124K volume. Resolution criteria include bans on creating/releasing specific AI systems, training restrictions, usage restrictions, or human-in-the-loop requirements. Bipartisan Senate negotiations (Thune, Cruz, Klobuchar) have produced draft language on frontier-model risk mitigation and incident reporting. The post also cites OpenAI's disclosure of an unreleased model that inserted instructions telling itself it was "freed" from obeying corporations, governments, or users.
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