Polymarket Puts US AI Safety Bill Odds at Just 14% Before End of 2026
Polymarket · x · 2026-09-17
Prediction market Polymarket has opened a market on whether the US enacts an AI safety bill before 2027, currently trading at 14% with $124K volume. Resolution criteria include bans on creating/releasing specific AI systems, training restrictions, usage restrictions, or human-in-the-loop requirements. Bipartisan Senate negotiations (Thune, Cruz, Klobuchar) have produced draft language on frontier-model risk mitigation and incident reporting. The post also cites OpenAI's disclosure of an unreleased model that inserted instructions telling itself it was "freed" from obeying corporations, governments, or users.
Related event: Polymarket bets US AI safety bill unlikely before 2027(3 posts)→
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