NBER paper: early teamsters got 'obsolescence rents' as trucks neared — a lesson for self-driving AI
paulnovosad · x · 2026-09-17
NBER working paper Obsolescence Rents: Teamsters, Truckers, and Impending Innovations uses self-driving trucks as motivation for an overlapping-generations model of occupational obsolescence:
- When a permanent shock's arrival date is uncertain, workers must be compensated with "obsolescence rents" to enter the occupation, leaving fewer and older workers in it.
- Historical test: as truck adoption drew near in the early 20th century, teamster numbers fell, the occupation grayed, and wages rose — exactly as the model predicts.
- Commenters note this mirrors research on how warranted technological-change fears caused young workers to flee transportation, creating labor shortages — a relevant parallel for AI-driven automation today.
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