Altimeter's Gerstner Sees Only 25GW of New Data Centers Next Year, Half for Anthropic and OpenAI
PTrubey · x · 2026-09-16
Altimeter CEO Brad Gerstner presented 30 slides on AI investing at the All-In Summit; PTrubey summarizes:
- Nasdaq up 39% since Jan 2025 despite rate, regulation and geopolitical worries — "an AI mania, which doesn't mean it isn't deserved"; earnings, not multiple expansion, are driving the market
- Since Dec 2015: Nasdaq +15%, Nvidia quarterly revenue up 1.7x, top-5 hyperscaler capex up 2x, BTC down 10%, 10-year yield +80bps
- Key dispute: Gerstner predicts "only" 25GW of new data center capacity next year, roughly half consumed by Anthropic and OpenAI — far below Dylan Patel's 43GW call
- He also warns that further rises in the 10-year yield would threaten the rally
A substantive first-hand take on the AI capex cycle debate and the bull/bear split on compute buildout.
More from Venture
- Indie Dev's Founder Lifts Leaderboard Hits 101K Impressions After 2-Hour Build — denisyurchak · 2026-11-02
- Post Bridge Loses 20% of Customers Monthly; Founders Workshop the ICP Narrowing Dilemma Live — tibo_maker · 2026-11-02
- Enterprise AI's real game: getting companies to spend far more, not less — inductionheads · 2026-11-02
- Marvell and Lumentum to merge, targeting $550B AI connectivity market — BenBajarin · 2026-11-02
- OpenAI has raised less than half of its $30B target in latest funding round, WSJ reports — pstAsiatech · 2026-11-02
- What 150k-follower Bilibili gaming creators charge: 8,500 yuan per video — ezshine · 2026-11-02