Polymarket Odds Put US-China AI Pacing Agreement by End of 2026 at Just 7%
Polymarket · x · 2026-09-16
Polymarket launched a market on whether the US and China announce an AI pacing agreement by Dec 31, 2026 — currently pricing at just 7% with $15k volume.
A qualifying agreement requires both governments to officially commit to measures like safety-conditioned training/release, compute caps, limits on recursive self-improvement, or pausing frontier model development. The post also cites the French finance minister claiming US AI leaders want rivals to slow down to stay in first place.
Related event: Polymarket prices just 8% odds of a US-China AI pacing deal by 2026(4 posts)→
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