'Everything is bullish for compute' gets pushback: duopoly and open source loss aren't
GavinSBaker · x · 2026-09-16
Investor Gavin Baker pushed back on the "everything is bullish for compute" meme as "funny and almost right," flagging two scenarios that would actually hurt compute demand: an OpenAI/Anthropic duopoly (regardless of whether they accelerate or pace the frontier) and open source losing.
The quoted thread satirized circular bull logic across open source outcomes, pacing, data walls, scaling laws, and adoption speed. Context includes OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar and compute strategy VP Sachin Katti arguing growth and safety alignment both require spending more compute.
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