JPMorgan sees 25M+ GPU/ASIC shipments by 2028, ASICs dominate — a 'narrative violation'
bookwormengr · x · 2026-09-16
Citing J.P. Morgan's forecast, GPU/ASIC shipments will exceed 25 million in 2028E, with ASICs dominating the growth — up from 10 million in 2025.
bookwormengr calls this a major "narrative violation" of early 2025, when Nvidia bulls (including Dylan Patel) argued that transformers' compute is mostly FFN/MoE matrix multiplies, leaving no room for ASIC differentiation. Even within that space, he notes massive headroom for innovation: cache-free designs, large programmable-access SRAMs, composable systolic arrays (as in RDUs), and different networking choices. He adds that Patel's earlier take was logical given available info, but he no longer holds that view.
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