Polymarket gives only 8% odds that US and China agree to slow AI development by end of 2026
Polymarket · x · 2026-09-16
Polymarket launched a market on whether the US and China announce an AI pacing agreement by December 31, 2026, currently priced at just 8%. Qualifying agreements would require both governments to commit to at least one measure: safety-conditioned model releases, compute caps for training, limits on recursive self-improvement, or otherwise pausing/slowing frontier AI—confirmed by official statements from both sides. The post comes in the context of intensifying US-China tech competition, suggesting little market belief in coordinated slowdown.
Related event: Polymarket Prices US-China AI Pacing Deal at Just 8%(3 posts)→
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