Jeff Clune on ASI bio x-risk: offense-defense asymmetry leaves real probability mass
jeffclune · x · 2026-09-16
Responding to skeptics who argue an ASI capable of making viruses could also defend against them, Jeff Clune lays out why the x-risk argument holds:
- No one claims ASI is here yet, so "why hasn't it cured anything" objections don't apply.
- The crux is whether an asymmetry exists between bio-offense and bio-defense — unknown, so probability mass sits on both sides, implying genuine x-risk.
- Humanity has never faced a superintelligent entity intentionally maximizing destruction, so precedents like COVID don't fully transfer: an ASI could engineer a virus with six months of asymptomatic spread before turning lethal.
- He also cites the OAI-HF incident as supporting context.
Related event: Jeff Clune on ASI Bio-Risk: Attack-Defense Asymmetry Is Real(2 posts)→
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