Polymarket Puts AI Bubble Burst Odds at Just 12% by End of 2026
Polymarket · x · 2026-09-15
Polymarket's "AI bubble burst" market has seen nearly $3M in volume, with the market pricing only a 12% chance (Yes at 14.3¢) of an AI industry downturn by the end of 2026.
The market defines a downturn very concretely: Yes resolves if at least three of the following occur within a 90-day window — NVIDIA down 50% from all-time high; SOXX down 40%; OpenAI or Anthropic bankruptcy (or OpenAI acquisition); H100 rental price at $1.00 or below for five consecutive days (SiliconData index); or TSMC/ASML/Broadcom/Arista/Super Micro down 50%.
The market runs through December 31, 2026.
Related event: Polymarket Bets Against AI Bubble Bursting Before End of 2026(8 posts)→
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