Polymarket: 13% odds the AI bubble bursts by end of year, ~$3M volume
Polymarket · x · 2026-09-15
Polymarket's "AI bubble burst by...?" market puts roughly 13% odds (Yes 14.5¢ / No 88.7¢) on an AI industry downturn by end-2026, with about $2.96M in volume.
Resolution to "Yes" requires at least three of: Nvidia closing 50% below its all-time high; SOXX down 40%; OpenAI or Anthropic bankruptcy; OpenAI being acquired; H100 rental price at $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days; or a major AI hardware supplier (TSMC, ASML, Broadcom, Arista, Super Micro) closing 50% below its all-time high—all within 90 days.
Related event: Polymarket Bets Against AI Bubble Bursting Before End of 2026(8 posts)→
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