Polymarket Odds Put AI Bubble Burst Before End of Year at Just 13%
Polymarket · x · 2026-09-15
Polymarket's "AI bubble burst" prediction market currently prices only a 13% chance of an industry downturn by December 31, 2026, with about $2.96M in total volume ($2.37M on the 2026 market).
Resolution requires at least three of the following within 90 days: NVIDIA down 50% from all-time high, SOXX down 40%, OpenAI or Anthropic bankruptcy, an OpenAI acquisition, H100 rental prices at $1.00 or below for five consecutive days (SiliconData index), or a 50% drawdown in TSMC, ASML, Broadcom, Arista, or Super Micro.
The market context: Trump just called fears of AI destroying humanity a "hoax," while traders' real money still sees low bubble risk.
Related event: Polymarket Bets Against AI Bubble Bursting Before End of 2026(8 posts)→
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