AI 2027 forecast: superhuman AI to outpace the Industrial Revolution, with two endings
Chris_Armstrong · x · 2026-09-14
A retweet recommending the full AI 2027 scenario, including both endings. Written by Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander and colleagues, it predicts superhuman AI's impact over the next decade will exceed that of the Industrial Revolution, with 2027 as their modal AGI year at publication (medians somewhat longer). The scenario draws on trend extrapolation, wargames, expert feedback and OpenAI experience, offers a "slowdown" and a "race" ending, and offers thousands in prizes for alternative scenarios.
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