Insiders claim labs privately see model progress far outpacing public perception
GregCook2011 · x · 2026-09-13
Adam Majmudar argues the recent wave of safety calls from lab employees looks like coordinated regulatory capture, driven by a large gap between internal and external perceptions of capability progress. Andrew Curran adds evidence: in under two years, models went from failing advanced math to (per claims) solving a Millennium Prize problem with next-gen models, driven by stacking pre-training and RL scaling — implying areas with early competence will likely turn superhuman soon.
Related event: OpenAI researcher: labs' internal progress far exceeds outside perception(5 posts)→
More from AGI Musings
- Microsoft's reported 60,000 voluntary exits spark essay asking who AI is really for — _jaydeepkarale · 2026-10-27
- Goodharting Isn't Just Fooling Others: How Metrics Confuse Yourself Too — davidmanheim · 2026-10-27
- PHP2Shell exploits confirmed in the wild, attackers may use agentic AI for post-exploitation — AravSrinivas · 2026-10-27
- LukeW: Technology Limits Are Temporary — and AI Skeptics Are Already Feeling It — LukeW · 2026-10-27
- GiveDirectly pilots an optional AI chatbot alongside cash aid in Rwanda — NathanpmYoung · 2026-10-27
- Ex-Anthropic employee essay: the org optimizes for power 'constrained by being seen as the good guys' — RichardMCNgo · 2026-10-27