Investor lays out five-step chain: ASI awareness within 24 months could halt all training runs
JOBhakdi · x · 2026-09-12
Responding to skepticism from CJDGiesen, JOBhakdi lays out a five-step reasoning chain he calls a high-alpha bet if correct:
- If ASI arrives, we are dead
- A critical mass of people will realize this within the next 24 months
- This triggers a strong policy response
- The response halts all ASI development and related training runs
- The shift from training to inference becomes even more extreme, favoring space-based over terrestrial buildout
He stresses every link must hold for the chain to work; his interlocutor says his instinct is that he is wrong and asks for the full writeup.
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