Commenter Argues Musk's 10-20% Doom Odds Actually Imply 100% Conditional on ASI
JOBhakdi · x · 2026-09-12
X user JOBhakdi pushes back on framing Elon Musk as a 10-20% p(doom) skeptic: Musk's number, he argues, factors in human agency, while the probability of catastrophe conditional on ASI actually emerging and being allowed to run is effectively 100%. He adds that counting his own agency puts his personal p(doom) near zero, and stresses the real question is how unlikely we are to let that scenario happen.
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