Chinese Models Lead OpenRouter Usage 19 Weeks Straight as Google's Market Contracts Collapse 96%
adrianscottcom · x · 2026-09-12
Prediction Market Moves
- Tencent's Hunyuan Hy4 preview hit 20.4 trillion weekly tokens on OpenRouter after open-sourcing on Aug 28 — the largest single-model weekly total ever — as Chinese models led weekly usage for a 19th straight week. Kalshi repriced sharply: Tencent's "above 6.8%" share strike jumped 20%→90% while Google's "above 19.9%" collapsed 24%→1%.
- DeepSeek moved both ways: V4 Flash models stayed top-five ("above 21.9%" strike 26%→90%) but traders see it holding share without taking #1 ("above 23.3%" fell 10%→1%).
- OpenAI: GPT-6 Astra demand forced a pause on new sign-ups and upgrades to the $200 ChatGPT Pro tier; a ChatGPT price-hike market rose 9%→11%. The Navier-Stokes Millennium Prize proof was a real milestone, but the credit feud with mathematician Tristan Buckmaster pushed the "another Millennium solution before 2027" market down 12 points to 73%.
- IPO consensus: "Anthropic IPO before 2027" rose to 90%; "OpenAI not IPO by Dec 31, 2026" sits at 92%, with 80% of probability on a $1.5T+ debut valuation. A thin-volume "who IPOs first" jump to 10% is likely noise.
Related event: Tencent Hunyuan tops OpenRouter as Google prediction contract plunges 96%(2 posts)→
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