Polymarket odds put 29% chance Leopold Aschenbrenner faces criminal charges by end of 2026
Polymarket · x · 2026-09-12
Polymarket has launched a market on whether Leopold Aschenbrenner will be criminally charged: the odds now stand at 29% for a formal indictment by December 31, 2026, versus just 3% by mid-2027 and 5% by end of 2027.
The context: JPMorgan reportedly cut off lending to Aschenbrenner's AI-focused hedge fund Situational Awareness after massive AI-related losses. The odds of indictment by end-2026 have climbed from an earlier 5% to 29%.
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