tszzl pushes back on Fermi paper: 50-OOM lognormal abiogenesis prior under-justified
tszzl · x · 2026-09-12
Researcher tszzl critiques a paper on Fermi paradox / AI doom: point estimates carry high uncertainty, and the lognormal PDF—especially an abiogenesis prior spanning 50 orders of magnitude—feels like an under-justified modeling choice. He adds that if we're alone in the observable universe, no one else will solve alignment for us, making doom worse even at slightly lower probability.
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