Instinct may burn $100M+ a year in tokens, and open-weight models aren't actually cheaper
ivan_bezdomny · x · 2026-09-12
Investor ivanbezdomny breaks down the economics of the AI app Instinct:
- Giving away free tokens is far more expensive than WhatsApp's old $1/year model; limiting heavy users is unavoidable, but "more fun than not having users."
- If growth stays hot, token burn could exceed $100M/year — the reason behind the $1B raise.
- Raising won't be hard while growth is fast; whoever hosts them benefits most.
- Instinct likely doesn't use OpenRouter, but if it offers model choice, OpenRouter could bundle a discount on its 5% fee.
- Open-weight models aren't really cheaper in practice; costs depend on usage intensity and can only be estimated.
Related event: Analysts Estimate Instinct App Could Burn Over $100M a Year in Token Costs(2 posts)→
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