Tesla's DCF math: $130/share from 10-year cash flows, the real fight is over terminal value
JOBhakdi · x · 2026-09-12
A breakdown of the two frameworks behind Tesla's valuation debate:
- DCF: discount each year's future cash flow back to today. For Tesla, projecting 2026–2036 yields roughly $130 per share from the 10-year DCF alone — and money further out gets discounted harder.
- Terminal value: stopping at ten years assumes Tesla ceases to exist in 2036, so everything after must be captured in a TV estimate.
The core takeaway: Tesla's valuation controversy lives almost entirely in the terminal value — small changes to post-2036 cash flow or discount rate assumptions swing the number dramatically.
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