Ensemble forecast pegs AI catastrophe (800M+ deaths) risk at 0.47% by 2030, 12% by 2100
paulnovosad · x · 2026-09-12
A median ensemble forecast over the top 4 models by Epoch's Capability Index (ECI) estimates the probability of an AI-caused catastrophe killing at least 800 million people (10% of the population) at 0.47% by 2030, 6% by 2050, and 12% by 2100.
Related event: AIRO Dashboard Forecasts AI Catastrophic Risk with Frontier Models(4 posts)→
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