Automated forecasting system puts AI-caused catastrophe odds at 0.47% by 2030
emollick · x · 2026-09-12
Ethan Mollick highlights AIRO (Automated AI Risk Outlook), an automated forecasting system built with top forecasting experts. It estimates a 0.47% chance of an AI-generated mass catastrophe by 2030, versus 1.1% for catastrophe from any cause. The system conditions forecasts on frontier capability (tracked via Epoch AI's Capabilities Index) across windows from 6 months to 2100, and recently reset its series with new incident-counting rules.
Related event: AIRO Dashboard Forecasts AI Catastrophic Risk with Frontier Models(4 posts)→
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