Dev Bets Most OpenAI/Anthropic Staff Don't Buy p(doom)=10%, Sees Higher Neuroticism in AI Safety
gordic_aleksa · x · 2026-09-12
Aleksa Gordic laid out three bets on frontier-lab attitudes toward existential risk:
- Most people at OpenAI/Anthropic do not agree with p(doom)=0.1 (10% chance AI kills us all by decade's end)
- The small AI safety/alignment groups inside those labs roughly hold that view, even if not in Bayesian terms
- Big Five testing would show substantially higher average neuroticism among safety/alignment folks, based on his 10 direct interactions plus many interviews
He argues these kind, smart, non-violent people are a self-selected group whose views should be one input into decisions—not the overweighted input they currently are.
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