The 'lily pond' moment: AI may be one doubling from looking transformative
pwlot · x · 2026-09-11
The author invokes the classic lily-pond analogy: lilies doubling daily fill the pond only on the final day. AI progress may be similarly deceptive — systems that look "only partly there" could be just one or two doublings from something transformative; even without strict doubling, vicious acceleration has the same psychological effect. A caution against linear intuitions about AI timelines.
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