Pangram detector finds ~50% of arXiv economics papers now contain AI writing
joshgans · x · 2026-09-11
Economist Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham used the commercial detector Pangram to analyze AI's presence in economics writing, as relayed by Josh Gans. Key findings:
- Almost no NBER or arXiv economics papers from 2022 are classified as AI-written.
- Today nearly 50% of arXiv papers have at least one 300-word window flagged as AI, and roughly 25% of NBER working papers.
- Detected AI writing takes off in 2025 with the advent of agentic AI.
The post frames AI detection as a classification problem with false positive/negative tradeoffs. An earlier study found little evidence AI boosted paper counts — meaning output volume is stable while the writing itself is being rapidly reshaped. Gans notes the data suggests the profession increasingly accepts AI writing.
Related event: Detection Finds AI-Generated Text in 24% of NBER Economics Papers(8 posts)→
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