Economist Ben Moll shows how Anthropic's 15% GDP growth scenario is built — and why he doesn't buy it
soumitrashukla9 · x · 2026-09-11
Economist Ben Moll (with @alexolegimas) published an essay dissecting how the Anthropic Economic Institute's scenario of 15% AI-driven GDP growth by 2030 could be modeled:
- Modeling is easy: take a standard Solow model, plug in a task-based production function, calibrate in a seemingly innocuous way — the basic logic is that AI removes labor as a bottleneck on growth
- But writable ≠ reasonable: Moll explicitly argues 15% growth is not a reasonable prediction; the existence of a model doesn't make the outcome likely
- Quote-tweeters press the key question: is there even a 20% chance this happens by 2030, given it would require a radical re-organization of how the economy works
One of the most substantive academic pushbacks against AGI macro forecasts.
Related event: Economists Push Back on Predictions of Double-Digit AI-Driven GDP Growth(10 posts)→
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