A Step-by-Step P(doom) Calculation: RSI Likely, Doom Far From Certain
SydSteyerhart · x · 2026-09-11
@ArtemisConsort breaks down the doom argument premise by premise: labs doing RSI (P≈1), capability acceleration (P=0.9), but opacity blocking alignment only P=0.5 and superintelligence exclusively pursuing its own goals just P=0.1 — constraints and competing values are feasible, so high P(doom) doesn't follow.
Related event: AI Community Debates P(doom): Show Your Reasoning(3 posts)→
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