Selling outcomes, not robots: why hardware offers no refuge from commodification
JohnnyNi13 · x · 2026-09-11
- @wquist's thesis: "All the money in Physical AI will be made selling outcomes, not robots."
- @cwamidon's longer argument: hardware investing is not a refuge from software commodification — most hardware has no defensibility.
- VC framing of hardware as "cheaper, faster, at scale" actually describes a race to the bottom that strips value from OEMs.
- Picks-and-shovels logic breaks down: pick buyers are mostly low-profitability organizations, and every competitor pays the same for labor costs.
- Build a mining robot and you face a fork: sell it (stay in the "fancy pick" business, racing to the bottom) or run it yourself (become the labor).
- Key asymmetry: labor budgets are a multiple of tool budgets; picks get priced against the next pick, labor gets priced against output. Value accrues to the outcome/labor side, not the hardware.
Related event: Physical AI Money Is in Selling Outcomes, Not Robots, Argues Founder(2 posts)→
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